Bitcoin Could Be 115K By August
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The CEO and co-chief investment officer Dan Morehead sent this announcement to the fund network via an emailed newsletter.
The prediction is quite optimistic since the rally attempts upward in the bitcoin (BTC) market often end with rejection and millions in liquidation. While we cannot name it as a bull market by no means, this optimistic prediction is supported by the financial author Preston Pysh. His sentiment is grounded in macro factors like instabilities.
The predictions made by Morehead and Pysh were based on an analytical framework which is called the “stock-to-flow model” (S2F). This model was created by the institutional investor PlanB in March 2019. PlanB states that BTC is the first scarce digital object of the world and proposes a formula to quantify this digital scarcity value. The procedure is based on the data about price and S2F. The data are indexed in time order, which means that the data can be derived monthly or annually to be more explicit.
Bitcoin scarcity is still governed by the network programming that was launched 12 years ago. The S2F model argues that the correlation between the BTC price and the issuance rate is, in theory, inversely proportional. Therefore, according to this model, the data has the information that we need in terms of the scarcity -and thus the value- of the cryptocurrency.
Coming back to Dan Morehead, one should mention his work experiences before the foundation of Pantera Capital in 2003. He has prior Wall Street experience. He was the head of macro trading in Tiger Management. He also served as a trader in Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. Given his prior experiences and current position, his prediction of BTC hitting $115K by August 2021 is worth considering.